TM · NYSE · STOCK
Toyota Motor (TM) Stock Analysis
$185.02
52W $166.10 – $248.90
64/100
$219.43B
8.3
0.34
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.65 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 7.7 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 7.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 61 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 13%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 7.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 61 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.6 to 63.6.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.388
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$176.15
Resistance
$190.62
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$185.31
Below
EMA 21
$187.53
Below
EMA 50
$188.50
Below
EMA 200
$193.25
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
95
Profitability
33
Financial Health
48
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.3×
P/B Ratio
0.95×
PEG Ratio
1.06
Dividend Yield
3.44%
52W High
$248.90
52W Low
$166.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
994.1%
ROA
376.1%
Gross Margin
1675.6%
Operating Margin
705.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 8.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.9%; Return on assets of 3.8%; Net margin of 8.6%; Gross margin of 16.8%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow per share is negative (-688.23); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 43.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-35.0% -> +92.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 86.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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