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Toyota Motor (TM) Stock Analysis
$193.65
52W $166.10 – $248.90
61/100
$229.51B
8.8
0.34
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.31 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.69 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Positive signals support the current rating — p/e of 9.2 is inexpensive for the broad market. The committee sees sufficient evidence to maintain the constructive view.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -18.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 23%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -18.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.7 to 60.7.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.285
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$191.56
Resistance
$195.64
Bollinger %B
0.85
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$191.57
Above
EMA 21
$188.62
Above
EMA 50
$185.97
Above
EMA 200
$194.27
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
95
Profitability
33
Financial Health
48
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.8×
P/B Ratio
1.01×
PEG Ratio
1.12
Dividend Yield
3.08%
52W High
$248.90
52W Low
$166.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
994.1%
ROA
376.1%
Gross Margin
1675.6%
Operating Margin
705.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 8.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.9%; Return on assets of 3.8%; Net margin of 8.6%; Gross margin of 16.8%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow per share is negative (-688.23); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 43.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-35.0% -> +92.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 86.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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