SMTC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Semtech
$137.16
52W $46.02 – $177.35
62/100
$12.99B
-374.2
2.35
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SMTC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Semtech (SMTC) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.90 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.10 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 32.7% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 32.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 23%
of 172 Technology peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 32.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.1 to 62.1.
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.371
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$73.90
Resistance
$177.21
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$127.31
Above
EMA 21
$129.08
Above
EMA 50
$132.69
Above
EMA 200
$106.90
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
71
Profitability
20
Financial Health
91
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-374.2×
P/B Ratio
22.59×
PEG Ratio
0.78
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$177.35
52W Low
$46.02
Quality & Growth
ROE
-734.9%
ROA
-286.5%
Gross Margin
5149.5%
Operating Margin
1107.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.86
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -374.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 22.6x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -7.3%; Return on assets of -2.9%; Net margin of -3.0%; Gross margin of 51.5%; Current ratio of 2.37 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.86; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-8.3% -> +15.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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