SMTC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Semtech (SMTC) Stock Analysis
$187.29
52W $60.28 – $201.99
59/100
$17.45B
113.0
2.42
Is SMTC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Semtech (SMTC) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.63 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.37 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 25.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 51.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 25.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 1063.4% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 29.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 45%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 51.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 52.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 25.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 23 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 63.9 to 59.4.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 52->35 (-18); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.348
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.66
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$187.51
Below
EMA 21
$178.01
Above
EMA 50
$161.87
Above
EMA 200
$125.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
87
Profitability
36
Financial Health
82
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
113.0×
P/B Ratio
23.34×
PEG Ratio
-0.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$201.99
52W Low
$60.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-734.9%
ROA
-286.5%
Gross Margin
5204.3%
Operating Margin
1270.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.70
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 113.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 23.3x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -7.3%; Return on assets of -2.9%; Net margin of 13.1%; Gross margin of 52.0%; Current ratio of 1.70 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.70; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+15.9% -> +39.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 73.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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