STX · NASDAQ · STOCK
Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Analysis
$782.62
52W $209.00 – $1145.00
55/100
$175.57B
53.9
2.08
Is STX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Seagate Technology (STX) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.49 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.51 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 34.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 212.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 34.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 104.5% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 55.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 84.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.65 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 28.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 78%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 212.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 55.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 34.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 54.5.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-14.854
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$699.07
Resistance
$1013.48
Bollinger %B
0.19
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$832.98
Below
EMA 21
$852.16
Below
EMA 50
$852.89
Below
EMA 200
$688.62
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
89
Profitability
91
Financial Health
51
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
53.9×
P/B Ratio
79.13×
PEG Ratio
0.49
Dividend Yield
0.38%
52W High
$1145.00
52W Low
$209.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
14693.1%
ROA
3192.9%
Gross Margin
4557.6%
Operating Margin
3357.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.78
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 53.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 79.1x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 146.9%; Return on assets of 31.9%; Net margin of 26.1%; Gross margin of 45.6%; Current ratio of 1.59 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.78; Free cash flow per share is positive (15.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+31.8% -> +39.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 120.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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