TD · NYSE · STOCK
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Analysis
$115.10
52W $77.95 – $125.47
54/100
$194.46B
17.5
0.87
Is TD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.21 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 116.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 116.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.21 across 14 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.20 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -19.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 82%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait
− Debt-to-equity of 2.20 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 116.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -19.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.21 across 14 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.8 to 54.2.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.600
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$91.05
Resistance
$124.86
Bollinger %B
0.14
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$116.56
Below
EMA 21
$118.25
Below
EMA 50
$119.02
Below
EMA 200
$108.64
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
90
Profitability
62
Financial Health
4
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.5×
P/B Ratio
2.13×
PEG Ratio
-0.88
Dividend Yield
2.68%
52W High
$125.47
52W Low
$77.95
Quality & Growth
ROE
1606.7%
ROA
98.0%
Gross Margin
5432.9%
Operating Margin
1786.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.1x; PEG ratio of -0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.1%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 14.4%; Gross margin of 54.3%; Current ratio of 0.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (14.26); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.5% -> +16.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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