TOST · NYSE · STOCK
Toast (TOST) Stock Analysis
$31.31
52W $22.26 – $39.73
66/100
$18.16B
37.7
1.74
Is TOST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Toast, Inc. (TOST) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.94 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 23.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 120.8% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 37.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 3%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 23.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 37.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 120.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.9 to 65.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.222
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$28.14
Resistance
$37.20
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$30.45
Above
EMA 21
$30.83
Above
EMA 50
$31.33
Below
EMA 200
$31.28
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
36
Growth
85
Profitability
58
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
37.7×
P/B Ratio
8.85×
PEG Ratio
0.32
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$39.73
52W Low
$22.26
Quality & Growth
ROE
1610.2%
ROA
1087.4%
Gross Margin
2667.6%
Operating Margin
639.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 37.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.8x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.1%; Return on assets of 10.9%; Net margin of 7.1%; Gross margin of 26.7%; Current ratio of 2.40 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+25.0% -> +30.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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