TPG · NASDAQ · STOCK
TPG (TPG) Stock Analysis
$45.28
52W $36.95 – $70.38
54/100
$17.35B
37.1
1.47
Is TPG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TPG Inc. (TPG) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.55 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.45 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 30.2% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 20.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 30.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 140.6% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 73.7 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 20.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.53 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.53) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 20.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 73.7 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
83
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 30.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.53) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 54.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.195
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$39.53
Resistance
$46.85
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$44.91
Above
EMA 21
$45.77
Below
EMA 50
$46.65
Below
EMA 200
$47.83
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
47
Growth
63
Profitability
54
Financial Health
2
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
37.1×
P/B Ratio
6.03×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
4.95%
52W High
$70.38
52W Low
$36.95
Quality & Growth
ROE
1557.4%
ROA
136.8%
Gross Margin
9585.8%
Operating Margin
1769.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.42
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 37.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.6%; Return on assets of 1.4%; Net margin of 4.7%; Gross margin of 95.9%; Current ratio of -98.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.42; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.57); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.4%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (-1.4% -> -1.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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