TPG · NASDAQ · STOCK
TPG (TPG) Stock Analysis
$42.95
52W $36.95 – $70.38
55/100
$16.44B
35.2
1.47
Is TPG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TPG Inc. (TPG) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.87 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.13 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 30.2% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.53) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 20.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 30.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 140.6% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 69.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 20.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.53 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 80%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 20.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 69.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
83
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 30.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.53) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.2 to 55.1.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 54->63 (+9); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: score 53->47 (-6); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
23.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.018
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$39.53
Resistance
$46.85
Bollinger %B
-0.04
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$44.07
Below
EMA 21
$45.16
Below
EMA 50
$46.28
Below
EMA 200
$47.70
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
63
Profitability
54
Financial Health
2
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
35.2×
P/B Ratio
5.71×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
5.22%
52W High
$70.38
52W Low
$36.95
Quality & Growth
ROE
1557.4%
ROA
136.8%
Gross Margin
9585.8%
Operating Margin
1769.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.42
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.6%; Return on assets of 1.4%; Net margin of 4.7%; Gross margin of 95.9%; Current ratio of -98.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.42; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.57); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.4%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (-1.4% -> -1.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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