TSM · NYSE · STOCK
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Stock Analysis
$418.90
52W $225.63 – $479.00
68/100
$2.17T
27.9
1.39
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.51 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.49 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is revenue growing 31.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. The main limiting factor is p/e of 27.9 is moderate-to-rich. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 55.2% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 0%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 27.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 68.5 to 68.5.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.478
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$313.81
Resistance
$478.55
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$418.88
Above
EMA 21
$418.09
Above
EMA 50
$417.12
Above
EMA 200
$369.89
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
49
Growth
88
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.9×
P/B Ratio
9.71×
PEG Ratio
0.52
Dividend Yield
0.91%
52W High
$479.00
52W Low
$225.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
3241.2%
ROA
2188.0%
Gross Margin
6423.0%
Operating Margin
5603.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.15
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.9 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.7x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 32.4%; Return on assets of 21.9%; Net margin of 50.4%; Gross margin of 64.2%; Current ratio of 2.46 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.15; Free cash flow per share is positive (215.67); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+13.2% -> +23.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 77.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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