TSM · NYSE · STOCK
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Stock Analysis
$412.51
52W $266.82 – $487.47
64/100
$2.19T
24.6
1.38
Is TSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.23 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.77 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 31.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 55.2% YoY — Growth
- 6 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.5 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 67.3 to 63.8.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 73->62 (-11).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: score 75->80 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 54->38 (-15); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
24.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-5.628
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$373.53
Resistance
$478.55
Bollinger %B
0.01
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$445.29
Below
EMA 21
$447.19
Below
EMA 50
$438.23
Below
EMA 200
$392.11
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
95
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.6×
P/B Ratio
8.97×
PEG Ratio
0.41
Dividend Yield
0.99%
52W High
$487.47
52W Low
$266.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
3241.2%
ROA
2188.0%
Gross Margin
6584.6%
Operating Margin
5791.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.14
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.0x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 32.4%; Return on assets of 21.9%; Net margin of 51.5%; Gross margin of 65.8%; Current ratio of 2.58 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.14; Free cash flow per share is positive (289.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 409.4%; 6 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+23.4% -> +446.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 415.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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