TSM · NYSE · STOCK
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Stock Analysis
$453.30
52W $266.82 – $487.47
64/100
$2.35T
29.6
1.38
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.16 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.84 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 31.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 55.2% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 11%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.4 to 63.8.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->62 (+4).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.213
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$373.53
Resistance
$478.55
Bollinger %B
0.54
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$462.73
Below
EMA 21
$453.09
Above
EMA 50
$438.77
Above
EMA 200
$390.34
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
47
Growth
88
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.6×
P/B Ratio
10.28×
PEG Ratio
0.56
Dividend Yield
0.94%
52W High
$487.47
52W Low
$266.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
3241.2%
ROA
2188.0%
Gross Margin
6423.0%
Operating Margin
5603.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.15
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.3x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 32.4%; Return on assets of 21.9%; Net margin of 50.4%; Gross margin of 64.2%; Current ratio of 2.46 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.15; Free cash flow per share is positive (215.67); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+13.2% -> +23.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 77.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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