TW · NASDAQ · STOCK
Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Analysis
$111.09
52W $91.42 – $149.25
60/100
$23.65B
26.4
0.61
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TW Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.49 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.51 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 61.4% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 80 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 28.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 61.4% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 80 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.2 to 59.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->58 (-4).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
80.1
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.089
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$101.82
Resistance
$111.88
Bollinger %B
1.07
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$106.65
Above
EMA 21
$104.82
Above
EMA 50
$104.07
Above
EMA 200
$108.00
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
74
Growth
36
Profitability
90
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.4×
P/B Ratio
3.56×
PEG Ratio
0.44
Dividend Yield
0.49%
52W High
$149.25
52W Low
$91.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
1249.0%
ROA
992.5%
Gross Margin
6814.4%
Operating Margin
4412.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.02
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 26.4 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.5%; Return on assets of 9.9%; Net margin of 40.7%; Gross margin of 68.1%; Current ratio of 6.05 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.02; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.96); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+24.1% -> -10.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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