AA · NYSE · STOCK
Alcoa (AA) Stock Analysis
$49.97
52W $30.71 – $84.38
68/100
$13.47B
10.4
1.62
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Alcoa (AA) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 4 analysts with 75% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.73 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 11.2% downside vs 0.3% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
75%
Analysts
4
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 0%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 63.7 to 67.7.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 80% to 75%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 62->85 (+22).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 70).
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.085
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$45.24
Resistance
$51.16
Bollinger %B
0.53
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$50.69
Below
EMA 21
$50.24
Below
EMA 50
$51.62
Below
EMA 200
$53.57
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
85
Profitability
53
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.4×
P/B Ratio
1.83×
PEG Ratio
0.38
Dividend Yield
0.78%
52W High
$84.38
52W Low
$30.71
Quality & Growth
ROE
1891.1%
ROA
717.3%
Gross Margin
1879.0%
Operating Margin
796.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.9%; Return on assets of 7.2%; Net margin of 9.4%; Gross margin of 18.8%; Current ratio of 1.53 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.30; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; EPS growth accelerating (+11.1% -> +51.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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