TCOM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Trip.com Group (TCOM) Stock Analysis
$38.91
52W $37.58 – $78.99
69/100
$25.27B
7.0
-0.04
Is TCOM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.92 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.18) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 6.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- EPS growing 32.5% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.18) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 2%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 6.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 32.5% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.18) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.7 to 68.9.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 49->56 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.068
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$38.05
Resistance
$47.48
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$38.68
Above
EMA 21
$39.57
Below
EMA 50
$41.49
Below
EMA 200
$49.37
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
75
Profitability
99
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.0×
P/B Ratio
1.03×
PEG Ratio
0.21
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$78.99
52W Low
$37.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
1893.3%
ROA
1210.5%
Gross Margin
8005.1%
Operating Margin
1612.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.17
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.9%; Return on assets of 12.1%; Net margin of 37.0%; Gross margin of 80.1%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.17; Free cash flow per share is positive (21.48); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 20.4%; EPS growth accelerating (+15.3% -> +26.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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