ABEV · NYSE · STOCK
Ambev (ABEV) Stock Analysis
$3.20
52W $2.10 – $3.45
59/100
$49.29B
15.4
0.27
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ABEV Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.96 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is roe of 18.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 18.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 7.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -3.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.96 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 34%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 18.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -3.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.04) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.96 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.4 to 59.0.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->61 (+3).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.030
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$2.85
Resistance
$3.24
Bollinger %B
0.88
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$3.11
Above
EMA 21
$3.04
Above
EMA 50
$3.01
Above
EMA 200
$2.91
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
85
Growth
60
Profitability
89
Financial Health
59
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.4×
P/B Ratio
2.81×
PEG Ratio
1.45
Dividend Yield
4.55%
52W High
$3.45
52W Low
$2.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
1763.5%
ROA
1046.7%
Gross Margin
5011.7%
Operating Margin
2564.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.8x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.6%; Return on assets of 10.5%; Net margin of 18.4%; Gross margin of 50.1%; Current ratio of 1.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.03; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.55); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.8%; EPS growth accelerating (-15.4% -> -7.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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