ALK · NYSE · STOCK
Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock Analysis
$41.91
52W $33.03 – $60.63
56/100
$4.52B
-25.7
1.28
Is ALK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Alaska Air Group (ALK) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 21, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.38 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.62 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -4.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 21, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -4.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.2 to 55.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.116
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$40.04
Resistance
$41.22
Bollinger %B
0.36
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$40.50
Above
EMA 21
$41.58
Above
EMA 50
$43.47
Below
EMA 200
$45.65
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
29
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-25.7×
P/B Ratio
1.24×
PEG Ratio
0.16
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$60.63
52W Low
$33.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
242.8%
ROA
49.1%
Gross Margin
9462.9%
Operating Margin
-151.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -25.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.4%; Return on assets of 0.5%; Net margin of -1.2%; Gross margin of 94.6%; Current ratio of 0.55 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.08; Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.11); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-490.7% -> +45.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -151.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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