AAON · NASDAQ · STOCK
AAON Stock Analysis
$76.78
52W $73.19 – $150.46
67/100
$6.29B
39.6
1.41
Is AAON Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates AAON (AAON) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 20, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.93 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.07 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 53.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 29.7% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 39.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 1%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 17.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 39.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 53.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.1 to 67.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.851
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$73.22
Resistance
$88.42
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$76.66
Above
EMA 21
$78.95
Below
EMA 50
$87.93
Below
EMA 200
$97.54
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
37
Growth
91
Profitability
45
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
39.6×
P/B Ratio
6.24×
PEG Ratio
1.35
Dividend Yield
0.52%
52W High
$150.46
52W Low
$73.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
1202.2%
ROA
638.0%
Gross Margin
2556.9%
Operating Margin
1105.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 39.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.2x; PEG ratio of 1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.0%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 8.2%; Gross margin of 25.6%; Current ratio of 3.01 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 33.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+23.1% -> +43.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 213.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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