AAON · NASDAQ · STOCK
AAON Stock Analysis
$79.40
52W $73.19 – $150.46
59/100
$6.50B
40.9
1.41
Is AAON Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates AAON (AAON) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.17 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 53.5% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 53.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 29.7% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 41.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 226 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 17.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 41.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 53.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.0 to 59.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: score 54->49 (-5); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.883
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$76.93
Resistance
$88.42
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$77.88
Above
EMA 21
$82.09
Below
EMA 50
$92.78
Below
EMA 200
$99.49
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
35
Growth
91
Profitability
45
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.9×
P/B Ratio
6.46×
PEG Ratio
1.40
Dividend Yield
0.50%
52W High
$150.46
52W Low
$73.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
1202.2%
ROA
638.0%
Gross Margin
2556.9%
Operating Margin
1105.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 40.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.5x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.0%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 8.2%; Gross margin of 25.6%; Current ratio of 3.01 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 33.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+23.1% -> +43.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 213.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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