ALSN · NYSE · STOCK
Allison Transmission (ALSN) Stock Analysis
$131.26
52W $76.01 – $137.62
60/100
$10.65B
20.3
0.97
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ALSN Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Allison Transmission (ALSN) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.69 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.31 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 53.1 to 60.3.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bearish at 30).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 50).
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.485
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$109.78
Resistance
$128.81
Bollinger %B
0.64
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$127.05
Above
EMA 21
$125.67
Above
EMA 50
$122.66
Above
EMA 200
$114.58
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
73
Growth
64
Profitability
80
Financial Health
52
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.3×
P/B Ratio
5.39×
PEG Ratio
-0.70
Dividend Yield
0.89%
52W High
$137.62
52W Low
$76.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
3336.9%
ROA
1024.3%
Gross Margin
3952.9%
Operating Margin
2497.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.4x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 33.4%; Return on assets of 10.2%; Net margin of 14.3%; Gross margin of 39.5%; Current ratio of 1.81 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.08; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.81); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.1%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+58.6% -> +6.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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