BIRK · NYSE · STOCK
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) Stock Analysis
$33.67
52W $29.93 – $50.73
50/100
$6.19B
16.3
1.30
Is BIRK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.58 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.42 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.33 across 3 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 85%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.33 across 3 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.4 to 50.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.365
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$33.06
Resistance
$42.60
Bollinger %B
0.78
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$33.22
Above
EMA 21
$33.09
Above
EMA 50
$34.72
Below
EMA 200
$39.13
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
51
Profitability
74
Financial Health
95
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.3×
P/B Ratio
1.95×
PEG Ratio
1.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$50.73
52W Low
$29.93
Quality & Growth
ROE
1279.3%
ROA
704.8%
Gross Margin
5477.7%
Operating Margin
2473.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.69
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of 1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.8%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 14.8%; Gross margin of 54.8%; Current ratio of 3.78 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.69; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.56); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.2%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+85.2% -> +48.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 19.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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