BURL · NYSE · STOCK
Burlington Stores (BURL) Stock Analysis
$276.97
52W $226.85 – $378.33
64/100
$17.43B
24.9
1.43
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is BURL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Burlington Stores (BURL) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.62 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.38 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 31.4% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 31.4% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.4% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 60.7 to 64.4.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 69->74 (+4); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->52 (+18); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
4.798
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$260.00
Resistance
$281.32
Bollinger %B
0.77
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$272.02
Above
EMA 21
$268.99
Above
EMA 50
$283.79
Below
EMA 200
$300.72
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
85
Profitability
63
Financial Health
16
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.9×
P/B Ratio
8.84×
PEG Ratio
0.82
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$378.33
52W Low
$226.85
Quality & Growth
ROE
3376.1%
ROA
615.1%
Gross Margin
4457.5%
Operating Margin
805.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.8x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 33.8%; Return on assets of 6.2%; Net margin of 5.8%; Gross margin of 44.6%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.95; Free cash flow per share is positive (15.83); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 33.0%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-58.9% -> +47.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 86.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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