CAKE · NASDAQ · STOCK
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Analysis
$107.57
52W $43.07 – $118.46
58/100
$5.35B
28.1
1.01
Is CAKE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.59 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 75 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.59 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 30.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.59 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.8 to 57.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.563
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.26
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$109.17
Below
EMA 21
$107.74
Below
EMA 50
$98.56
Above
EMA 200
$75.38
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
32
Growth
86
Profitability
59
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.1×
P/B Ratio
9.67×
PEG Ratio
2.01
Dividend Yield
1.09%
52W High
$118.46
52W Low
$43.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
3401.0%
ROA
455.1%
Gross Margin
4642.0%
Operating Margin
526.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.1 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.7x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.0%; Return on assets of 4.6%; Net margin of 4.6%; Gross margin of 46.4%; Current ratio of 0.59 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 20.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+5.0% -> +37.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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