CAKE · NASDAQ · STOCK
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Analysis
$108.48
52W $43.07 – $118.46
58/100
$5.39B
28.3
1.04
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CAKE Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.02 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.98 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Current ratio of 0.59 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 37%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.59 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 15 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.5 to 58.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 71->68 (-3); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 47->35 (-12); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.387
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$55.92
Resistance
$117.92
Bollinger %B
0.74
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$107.21
Above
EMA 21
$105.98
Above
EMA 50
$102.41
Above
EMA 200
$81.54
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
32
Growth
86
Profitability
59
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.3×
P/B Ratio
9.74×
PEG Ratio
2.02
Dividend Yield
1.08%
52W High
$118.46
52W Low
$43.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
3401.0%
ROA
455.1%
Gross Margin
4642.0%
Operating Margin
526.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.3 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.7x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.0%; Return on assets of 4.6%; Net margin of 4.6%; Gross margin of 46.4%; Current ratio of 0.59 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 20.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+5.0% -> +37.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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