CAVA · NYSE · STOCK
Cava Group (CAVA) Stock Analysis
$53.66
52W $43.41 – $98.79
55/100
$6.25B
93.7
1.81
Is CAVA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Cava Group (CAVA) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.75 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.25 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 68.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 68.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 81.5% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 18.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.51 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 59%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 68.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.2 to 55.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.639
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$43.44
Resistance
$58.05
Bollinger %B
0.66
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$53.46
Above
EMA 21
$54.59
Below
EMA 50
$59.30
Below
EMA 200
$69.32
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
36
Growth
72
Profitability
28
Financial Health
97
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
93.7×
P/B Ratio
7.43×
PEG Ratio
-1.75
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$98.79
52W Low
$43.41
Quality & Growth
ROE
817.6%
ROA
468.7%
Gross Margin
2016.1%
Operating Margin
678.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.62
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 93.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of -1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.2%; Return on assets of 4.7%; Net margin of 4.8%; Gross margin of 20.2%; Current ratio of 2.48 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.62; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.2%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+400.0% -> -5.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 18.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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