CCL · NYSE · STOCK
Carnival (CCL) Stock Analysis
$26.35
52W $21.45 – $34.03
58/100
$36.09B
11.4
2.38
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CCL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Carnival Corporation (CCL) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.61 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 23.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.17 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.17) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.32 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 41%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.17 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.17) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 145 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.0 to 57.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.3
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.494
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$25.10
Resistance
$27.16
Bollinger %B
0.85
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$25.48
Above
EMA 21
$24.63
Above
EMA 50
$24.93
Above
EMA 200
$26.45
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
85
Profitability
61
Financial Health
18
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.4×
P/B Ratio
2.53×
PEG Ratio
0.62
Dividend Yield
1.71%
52W High
$34.03
52W Low
$21.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
2246.8%
ROA
534.0%
Gross Margin
3421.5%
Operating Margin
1598.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.77
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 22.5%; Return on assets of 5.3%; Net margin of 11.4%; Gross margin of 34.2%; Current ratio of 0.27 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.77; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+105.0% -> +248.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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