MCD · NYSE · STOCK
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis
$265.54
52W $260.96 – $341.75
58/100
$193.85B
22.1
0.42
Is MCD Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.50 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.40 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.95 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 45%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.2 to 58.5.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 66->62 (-4).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.662
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$272.92
Below
EMA 21
$272.08
Below
EMA 50
$274.84
Below
EMA 200
$291.36
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Growth
77
Profitability
73
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.1×
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
4.25
Dividend Yield
2.69%
52W High
$341.75
52W Low
$260.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
-47811.3%
ROA
1438.8%
Gross Margin
5738.7%
Operating Margin
4597.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -189.5x; PEG ratio of 4.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -478.1%; Return on assets of 14.4%; Net margin of 31.7%; Gross margin of 57.4%; Current ratio of 1.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -53.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-9.3% -> +19.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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