MCD · NYSE · STOCK
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis
$235.23
52W $229.20 – $341.75
55/100
$167.13B
19.1
0.45
Is MCD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.40 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 21 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 60%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.9 to 54.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.641
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.36
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$234.80
Above
EMA 21
$240.29
Below
EMA 50
$251.48
Below
EMA 200
$277.82
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
77
Profitability
73
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.1×
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
3.67
Dividend Yield
3.16%
52W High
$341.75
52W Low
$229.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
-47811.3%
ROA
1438.8%
Gross Margin
5738.9%
Operating Margin
4583.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -163.4x; PEG ratio of 3.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -478.1%; Return on assets of 14.4%; Net margin of 31.7%; Gross margin of 57.4%; Current ratio of 1.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -53.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-9.3% -> +19.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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