MCD · NYSE · STOCK
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis
$271.07
52W $260.96 – $341.75
54/100
$192.51B
22.0
0.42
Is MCD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.46 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.40 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 60%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 54.5.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.134
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$260.96
Resistance
$289.11
Bollinger %B
0.50
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$270.04
Above
EMA 21
$270.64
Above
EMA 50
$273.62
Below
EMA 200
$290.22
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Growth
77
Profitability
73
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.0×
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
4.22
Dividend Yield
2.71%
52W High
$341.75
52W Low
$260.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
-47811.3%
ROA
1438.8%
Gross Margin
5738.7%
Operating Margin
4597.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -188.2x; PEG ratio of 4.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -478.1%; Return on assets of 14.4%; Net margin of 31.7%; Gross margin of 57.4%; Current ratio of 1.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -53.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-9.3% -> +19.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full MCD Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →