HLT · NYSE · STOCK
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Stock Analysis
$326.57
52W $253.54 – $358.00
53/100
$73.50B
47.5
1.10
Is HLT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.88 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.12 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 171.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 46.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 38.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 13.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 13.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.66 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 70%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 171.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 46.5 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 13.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.1 to 53.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.723
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$300.50
Resistance
$333.20
Bollinger %B
0.92
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$320.52
Above
EMA 21
$317.40
Above
EMA 50
$318.23
Above
EMA 200
$311.79
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
66
Profitability
53
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
47.5×
P/B Ratio
-11.76×
PEG Ratio
10.41
Dividend Yield
0.18%
52W High
$358.00
52W Low
$253.54
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2704.2%
ROA
868.6%
Gross Margin
4406.1%
Operating Margin
2334.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 47.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -11.8x; PEG ratio of 10.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -27.0%; Return on assets of 8.7%; Net margin of 12.7%; Gross margin of 44.1%; Current ratio of 0.65 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.22; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.84); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth accelerating (-3.4% -> +13.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 4.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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