EXPE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock Analysis
$274.30
52W $185.34 – $342.00
58/100
$31.40B
16.4
1.36
Is EXPE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Expedia Group (EXPE) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.13 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.87 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 96.8% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 184.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 96.8% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 27.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.80 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.73 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 184.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 27.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 96.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.9 to 57.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.532
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$219.53
Resistance
$279.32
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$266.76
Above
EMA 21
$272.81
Above
EMA 50
$280.36
Below
EMA 200
$260.49
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
95
Profitability
79
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.4×
P/B Ratio
27.45×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
0.67%
52W High
$342.00
52W Low
$185.34
Quality & Growth
ROE
10077.9%
ROA
529.2%
Gross Margin
9043.3%
Operating Margin
1879.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.70
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 27.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 100.8%; Return on assets of 5.3%; Net margin of 13.0%; Gross margin of 90.4%; Current ratio of 0.80 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.70; Free cash flow per share is positive (41.68); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-48.4% -> +195.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 35.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full EXPE Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →