SBUX · NASDAQ · STOCK
Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Analysis
$90.76
52W $77.99 – $110.51
49/100
$103.45B
52.2
0.97
Is SBUX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.03 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.97 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 115.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 64.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 8.07 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -25.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 115.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 52.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -25.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.0 to 49.0.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +3 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
24.6
Oversold
MACD Histogram
0.012
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$86.85
Resistance
$98.86
Bollinger %B
-0.12
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$93.80
Below
EMA 21
$95.83
Below
EMA 50
$99.06
Below
EMA 200
$98.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
84
Profitability
28
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
52.2×
P/B Ratio
-13.53×
PEG Ratio
-2.09
Dividend Yield
2.73%
52W High
$110.51
52W Low
$77.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2292.8%
ROA
579.8%
Gross Margin
3174.6%
Operating Margin
943.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.92
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 52.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -13.5x; PEG ratio of -2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -22.9%; Return on assets of 5.8%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 31.7%; Current ratio of 0.76 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.92; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.18); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-10.7% -> +70.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 39.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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