CHDN · NASDAQ · STOCK
Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock Analysis
$79.97
52W $73.08 – $118.35
54/100
$5.57B
13.7
0.67
Is CHDN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 36.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.11 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.60 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 64%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 7.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.6 to 53.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 49->56 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.274
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$79.41
Resistance
$90.89
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$77.39
Above
EMA 21
$79.21
Above
EMA 50
$82.45
Below
EMA 200
$89.71
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
86
Growth
70
Profitability
66
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.7×
P/B Ratio
4.17×
PEG Ratio
-26.79
Dividend Yield
0.55%
52W High
$118.35
52W Low
$73.08
Quality & Growth
ROE
3760.5%
ROA
507.3%
Gross Margin
3720.0%
Operating Margin
2420.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.57
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.2x; PEG ratio of -26.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 37.6%; Return on assets of 5.1%; Net margin of 13.7%; Gross margin of 37.2%; Current ratio of 0.36 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.57; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.47); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.1%; EPS growth accelerating (+24.7% -> +185.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 11.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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