CME · NASDAQ · STOCK
CME Group (CME) Stock Analysis
$280.55
52W $218.31 – $329.16
63/100
$100.88B
23.7
0.27
Is CME Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CME Group (CME) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.41 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.59 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 74 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 34%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 74 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.9 to 62.6.
- Conviction changed from high to moderate.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 83% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 68->62 (-6).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 61->54 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.188
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$275.01
Resistance
$287.64
Bollinger %B
0.94
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$271.84
Above
EMA 21
$271.03
Above
EMA 50
$269.67
Above
EMA 200
$271.75
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
49
Profitability
73
Financial Health
59
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.7×
P/B Ratio
3.81×
PEG Ratio
1.63
Dividend Yield
4.03%
52W High
$329.16
52W Low
$218.31
Quality & Growth
ROE
1407.8%
ROA
203.7%
Gross Margin
8189.2%
Operating Margin
6510.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.8x; PEG ratio of 1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.1%; Return on assets of 2.0%; Net margin of 63.1%; Gross margin of 81.9%; Current ratio of 1.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.70); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+21.3% -> -11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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