CME · NASDAQ · STOCK
CME Group (CME) Stock Analysis
$267.83
52W $218.31 – $329.16
65/100
$97.01B
22.8
0.27
Is CME Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CME Group (CME) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.46 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 49 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 70 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 209 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 70 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 49 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.5 to 65.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.423
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$263.29
Resistance
$287.64
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$264.44
Above
EMA 21
$259.97
Above
EMA 50
$259.02
Above
EMA 200
$270.93
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
69
Growth
49
Profitability
73
Financial Health
59
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.8×
P/B Ratio
3.66×
PEG Ratio
1.57
Dividend Yield
4.17%
52W High
$329.16
52W Low
$218.31
Quality & Growth
ROE
1407.8%
ROA
203.7%
Gross Margin
8189.2%
Operating Margin
6510.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of 1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.1%; Return on assets of 2.0%; Net margin of 63.1%; Gross margin of 81.9%; Current ratio of 1.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.70); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+21.3% -> -11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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