CMG · NYSE · STOCK
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Analysis
$38.05
52W $28.04 – $43.59
56/100
$47.33B
33.9
0.94
Is CMG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 24, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.34 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 17.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.3 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.259
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$36.80
Resistance
$37.08
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$34.54
Above
EMA 21
$34.13
Above
EMA 50
$33.76
Above
EMA 200
$35.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
42
Growth
69
Profitability
67
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.9×
P/B Ratio
21.60×
PEG Ratio
-9.56
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$43.59
52W Low
$28.04
Quality & Growth
ROE
5425.6%
ROA
1707.4%
Gross Margin
2413.0%
Operating Margin
1519.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 21.6x; PEG ratio of -9.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 54.3%; Return on assets of 17.1%; Net margin of 11.4%; Gross margin of 24.1%; Current ratio of 0.72 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.22); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-4.0% -> +37.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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