CMG · NYSE · STOCK
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Analysis
$31.58
52W $28.04 – $42.82
56/100
$40.52B
29.0
0.96
Is CMG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 17.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 55.5.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.003
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$31.43
Resistance
$31.75
Bollinger %B
0.33
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$31.81
Below
EMA 21
$32.70
Below
EMA 50
$33.64
Below
EMA 200
$35.36
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
48
Growth
69
Profitability
67
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.0×
P/B Ratio
18.49×
PEG Ratio
-8.19
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$42.82
52W Low
$28.04
Quality & Growth
ROE
5425.6%
ROA
1707.4%
Gross Margin
2413.0%
Operating Margin
1519.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.0 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 18.5x; PEG ratio of -8.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 54.3%; Return on assets of 17.1%; Net margin of 11.4%; Gross margin of 24.1%; Current ratio of 0.72 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.22); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-4.0% -> +37.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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