CMG · NYSE · STOCK
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Analysis
$36.95
52W $28.04 – $42.82
61/100
$47.38B
33.9
0.94
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CMG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.17 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 17.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 37%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 53.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 33.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 46 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.2 to 61.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.102
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$36.80
Resistance
$37.08
Bollinger %B
0.64
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.28
Below
EMA 21
$36.29
Above
EMA 50
$35.05
Above
EMA 200
$35.98
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
41
Growth
69
Profitability
67
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.9×
P/B Ratio
21.63×
PEG Ratio
-9.57
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$42.82
52W Low
$28.04
Quality & Growth
ROE
5425.6%
ROA
1707.4%
Gross Margin
2413.0%
Operating Margin
1519.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 21.6x; PEG ratio of -9.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 54.3%; Return on assets of 17.1%; Net margin of 11.4%; Gross margin of 24.1%; Current ratio of 0.72 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.46; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.22); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-4.0% -> +37.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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