COST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Costco (COST) Stock Analysis
$971.85
52W $844.06 – $1096.50
61/100
$430.80B
48.8
0.86
Is COST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Costco (COST) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.61 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 31%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.8 to 60.6.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 60%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 48->52 (+4).
- Risk Analyst: score 75->70 (-5).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 49).
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.913
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$961.68
Resistance
$999.20
Bollinger %B
0.94
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$954.54
Above
EMA 21
$951.85
Above
EMA 50
$955.41
Above
EMA 200
$962.67
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
53
Profitability
54
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
48.8×
P/B Ratio
12.87×
PEG Ratio
3.85
Dividend Yield
0.57%
52W High
$1096.50
52W Low
$844.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
2777.0%
ROA
1050.5%
Gross Margin
1287.6%
Operating Margin
382.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 48.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.9x; PEG ratio of 3.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 27.8%; Return on assets of 10.5%; Net margin of 3.0%; Gross margin of 12.9%; Current ratio of 1.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.84); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (+1.8% -> +7.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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