COST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Costco (COST) Stock Analysis
$946.73
52W $844.06 – $1096.50
60/100
$419.94B
45.6
0.87
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is COST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Costco (COST) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.28 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.21) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 28.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.21) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 45.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 74 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 28.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 45.5 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 74 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.21) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.4 to 60.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 64->58 (-6).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.3
Overbought
MACD Histogram
5.697
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$926.39
Resistance
$963.86
Bollinger %B
0.93
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$932.66
Above
EMA 21
$924.92
Above
EMA 50
$930.02
Above
EMA 200
$950.82
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
61
Profitability
54
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
45.6×
P/B Ratio
11.74×
PEG Ratio
3.29
Dividend Yield
0.59%
52W High
$1096.50
52W Low
$844.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
2576.9%
ROA
1036.1%
Gross Margin
1282.3%
Operating Margin
385.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 45.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 11.7x; PEG ratio of 3.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 25.8%; Return on assets of 10.4%; Net margin of 3.0%; Gross margin of 12.8%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (21.15); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (+7.6% -> +33.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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