CVCO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock Analysis
$531.83
52W $443.34 – $713.01
61/100
$4.10B
22.9
1.27
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CVCO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.67 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.71 across 7 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -0.3% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.71 across 7 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- EPS declining -0.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 16.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -0.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
81
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.71 across 7 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.3 to 60.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.139
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$515.73
Resistance
$536.99
Bollinger %B
0.20
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$553.17
Below
EMA 21
$555.21
Below
EMA 50
$559.21
Below
EMA 200
$553.03
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
53
Profitability
58
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.9×
P/B Ratio
3.70×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$713.01
52W Low
$443.34
Quality & Growth
ROE
1727.3%
ROA
1277.9%
Gross Margin
2315.3%
Operating Margin
961.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.04
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of -532.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.3%; Return on assets of 12.8%; Net margin of 7.9%; Gross margin of 23.2%; Current ratio of 2.23 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.04; Free cash flow per share is positive (30.44); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 6.4%; EPS growth roughly steady (+0.0% -> +0.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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