CVNA · NYSE · STOCK
Carvana (CVNA) Stock Analysis
$72.33
52W $54.46 – $97.38
54/100
$79.31B
25.0
3.49
Is CVNA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Carvana (CVNA) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.09 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.91 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 54.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 22.9% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 46.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 54.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 40.6% YoY — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 26.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 70%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 46.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 52.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 54.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.9 to 53.9.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.054
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$63.76
Resistance
$75.36
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$70.73
Above
EMA 21
$69.59
Above
EMA 50
$68.65
Above
EMA 200
$69.17
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
53
Growth
61
Profitability
58
Financial Health
78
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.0×
P/B Ratio
12.88×
PEG Ratio
0.10
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$97.38
52W Low
$54.46
Quality & Growth
ROE
4088.9%
ROA
1065.8%
Gross Margin
1937.1%
Operating Margin
892.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.9%; Return on assets of 10.7%; Net margin of 6.3%; Gross margin of 19.4%; Current ratio of 3.93 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.40; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.29); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.3%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+59.4% -> +24.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 64.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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