CVNA · NYSE · STOCK
Carvana (CVNA) Stock Analysis
$63.73
52W $45.88 – $97.38
56/100
$69.90B
22.0
3.55
Is CVNA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Carvana (CVNA) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.19 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.81 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 54.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 46.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 54.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 40.6% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 44.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 26.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 46.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 44.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 54.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.2 to 55.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.107
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$61.04
Resistance
$64.63
Bollinger %B
0.41
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$63.60
Above
EMA 21
$65.07
Below
EMA 50
$67.03
Below
EMA 200
$68.72
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Growth
61
Profitability
58
Financial Health
78
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.0×
P/B Ratio
11.36×
PEG Ratio
0.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$97.38
52W Low
$45.88
Quality & Growth
ROE
4088.9%
ROA
1065.8%
Gross Margin
1937.1%
Operating Margin
892.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 11.4x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.9%; Return on assets of 10.7%; Net margin of 6.3%; Gross margin of 19.4%; Current ratio of 3.93 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.40; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.29); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.3%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+59.4% -> +24.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 64.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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