DEO · NYSE · STOCK
Diageo (DEO) Stock Analysis
$86.73
52W $72.45 – $102.74
56/100
$48.21B
27.8
0.31
Is DEO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Diageo plc (DEO) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 48.7% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 48.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 58.3% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 12.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 48.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 18 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 55.9.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.209
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$86.58
Resistance
$87.41
Bollinger %B
0.63
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$85.78
Above
EMA 21
$86.46
Above
EMA 50
$87.22
Below
EMA 200
$87.78
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
68
Growth
44
Profitability
65
Financial Health
45
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.8×
P/B Ratio
4.41×
PEG Ratio
-1.05
Dividend Yield
3.83%
52W High
$102.74
52W Low
$72.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
1594.6%
ROA
370.1%
Gross Margin
5947.7%
Operating Margin
2837.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.4x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.9%; Return on assets of 3.7%; Net margin of 8.9%; Gross margin of 59.5%; Current ratio of 1.60 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.03; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.73); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+43.3% -> -26.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1.6%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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