EL · NYSE · STOCK
Estée Lauder Companies (EL) Stock Analysis
$101.91
52W $66.22 – $121.64
49/100
$36.87B
203.9
1.25
Is EL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.60 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.40 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -6.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.89 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 80 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 80 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.89) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.4 to 49.4.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
79.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.439
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$90.89
Resistance
$103.37
Bollinger %B
1.20
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$92.22
Above
EMA 21
$88.60
Above
EMA 50
$86.03
Above
EMA 200
$87.58
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
65
Profitability
35
Financial Health
19
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
203.9×
P/B Ratio
9.70×
PEG Ratio
0.79
Dividend Yield
1.37%
52W High
$121.64
52W Low
$66.22
Quality & Growth
ROE
478.2%
ROA
92.1%
Gross Margin
7550.0%
Operating Margin
518.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.43
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 203.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.7x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.8%; Return on assets of 0.9%; Net margin of 1.2%; Gross margin of 75.5%; Current ratio of 1.22 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.43; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.63); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+2.2% -> -57.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 333.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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