EL · NYSE · STOCK
Estée Lauder Companies (EL) Stock Analysis
$98.03
52W $66.22 – $121.64
50/100
$35.46B
192.3
1.27
Is EL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.48 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 27 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 193.4 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 27 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 193.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only 4.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.92 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.92) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 193.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.92) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 27 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 50.5.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 54->61 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.051
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$90.89
Resistance
$103.37
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$94.75
Above
EMA 21
$95.13
Above
EMA 50
$93.86
Above
EMA 200
$90.44
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
65
Profitability
35
Financial Health
19
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
192.3×
P/B Ratio
9.35×
PEG Ratio
0.74
Dividend Yield
1.43%
52W High
$121.64
52W Low
$66.22
Quality & Growth
ROE
478.2%
ROA
92.1%
Gross Margin
7550.0%
Operating Margin
1114.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.43
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 192.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.4x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.8%; Return on assets of 0.9%; Net margin of 1.2%; Gross margin of 75.5%; Current ratio of 1.22 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.43; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.62); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+2.2% -> -57.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 333.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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