ELF · NYSE · STOCK
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Analysis
$93.63
52W $48.82 – $150.99
58/100
$5.39B
91.3
2.39
Is ELF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +1.74 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -18.26 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 31.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 31.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 91.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- EPS declining -41.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 31.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 91.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 31.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -41.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 48 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.3 to 58.3.
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.116
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$88.61
Resistance
$96.38
Bollinger %B
0.71
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$91.18
Above
EMA 21
$86.28
Above
EMA 50
$78.24
Above
EMA 200
$79.41
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
51
Growth
90
Profitability
35
Financial Health
93
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
91.3×
P/B Ratio
4.63×
PEG Ratio
-2.16
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$150.99
52W Low
$48.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
232.8%
ROA
109.9%
Gross Margin
7443.6%
Operating Margin
1050.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.79
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 91.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.6x; PEG ratio of -2.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.3%; Return on assets of 1.1%; Net margin of 3.4%; Gross margin of 74.4%; Current ratio of 2.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.79; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.74); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 143.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-74.2% -> +446.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 96.6%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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