ETSY · NYSE · STOCK
Etsy (ETSY) Stock Analysis
$76.50
52W $44.00 – $87.97
49/100
$7.26B
36.1
1.81
Is ETSY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.41 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 67.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 44.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.80 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 30 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 67.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 33.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 30 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.4 to 49.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
29.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.503
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$51.03
Resistance
$87.35
Bollinger %B
-0.03
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$81.03
Below
EMA 21
$81.49
Below
EMA 50
$79.52
Below
EMA 200
$68.36
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
15
Profitability
49
Financial Health
78
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.1×
P/B Ratio
-5.17×
PEG Ratio
0.82
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$87.97
52W Low
$44.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1484.2%
ROA
576.5%
Gross Margin
7229.6%
Operating Margin
1599.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.20
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -5.2x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -14.8%; Return on assets of 5.8%; Net margin of 7.3%; Gross margin of 72.3%; Current ratio of 1.48 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.20; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.54); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 165.9%; EPS growth decelerating (-3.3% -> -155.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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