ETSY · NYSE · STOCK
Etsy, Inc.
$79.45
52W $44.00 – $87.97
50/100
$7.54B
37.5
1.82
Is ETSY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.82 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.18 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 67.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 44.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.80 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Negative filing: Costs associated with exit or disposal (restructuring) (6d ago) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 67.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 35.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− Negative filing: Costs associated with exit or disposal (restructuring) (6d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.818
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.08
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$82.57
Below
EMA 21
$82.01
Below
EMA 50
$77.54
Above
EMA 200
$65.79
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
70
Profitability
49
Financial Health
78
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
37.5×
P/B Ratio
-5.38×
PEG Ratio
0.85
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$87.97
52W Low
$44.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1484.2%
ROA
576.5%
Gross Margin
7229.6%
Operating Margin
1599.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.20
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 37.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -5.4x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -14.8%; Return on assets of 5.8%; Net margin of 7.3%; Gross margin of 72.3%; Current ratio of 1.48 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.20; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.54); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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