F · NYSE · STOCK
Ford Motor (F) Stock Analysis
$12.16
52W $11.11 – $17.78
47/100
$48.53B
-6.5
1.94
Is F Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ford Motor Company (F) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.08 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.8% pays you to wait — Value
Bear Case
- ROE of only -18.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.54 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 97%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -18.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.1 to 47.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.008
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$11.59
Resistance
$12.49
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$12.29
Below
EMA 21
$12.69
Below
EMA 50
$13.26
Below
EMA 200
$13.30
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
66
Profitability
0
Financial Health
12
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-6.5×
P/B Ratio
1.36×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
4.93%
52W High
$17.78
52W Low
$11.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2275.8%
ROA
-283.0%
Gross Margin
1077.1%
Operating Margin
196.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.57
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -6.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -22.8%; Return on assets of -2.8%; Net margin of -3.9%; Gross margin of 10.8%; Current ratio of 1.09 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.57; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.83); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 17.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+407.7% -> -36.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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