GEF · NYSE · STOCK
Greif (GEF) Stock Analysis
$81.72
52W $55.75 – $90.57
64/100
$3.78B
4.6
0.79
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is GEF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Greif, Inc. (GEF) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.75 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 4.4 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 4.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 33.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 420.2% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 12%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
76
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 4.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 420.2% YoY
− Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.8 to 63.8.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.016
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$64.99
Resistance
$90.42
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$81.94
Below
EMA 21
$82.41
Below
EMA 50
$82.03
Below
EMA 200
$74.72
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
68
Profitability
77
Financial Health
70
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.6×
P/B Ratio
1.55×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
2.88%
52W High
$90.57
52W Low
$55.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
2881.8%
ROA
1456.6%
Gross Margin
2282.2%
Operating Margin
446.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.41
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 4.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.8%; Return on assets of 14.6%; Net margin of 29.1%; Gross margin of 22.8%; Current ratio of 1.29 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.41; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.01); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 43.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+6.8% -> +46.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 24.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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