GPK · NYSE · STOCK
Graphic Packaging (GPK) Stock Analysis
$8.35
52W $8.21 – $18.25
52/100
$2.47B
12.7
0.67
Is GPK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Graphic Packaging (GPK) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.60 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 12.9 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.67 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -63.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 17 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.67) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 79%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.67 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -63.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.67) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 51.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->58 (-4).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
17.0
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.027
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$8.73
Below
EMA 21
$9.19
Below
EMA 50
$9.88
Below
EMA 200
$11.95
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
61
Profitability
29
Financial Health
42
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.7×
P/B Ratio
0.77×
PEG Ratio
-0.20
Dividend Yield
5.27%
52W High
$18.25
52W Low
$8.21
Quality & Growth
ROE
1330.9%
ROA
377.1%
Gross Margin
1545.7%
Operating Margin
688.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of -0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.3%; Return on assets of 3.8%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 15.5%; Current ratio of 1.38 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.64); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-69.0% -> +55.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -66.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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