GPK · NASDAQ · STOCK
Graphic Packaging
$12.10
52W $8.79 – $23.47
60/100
$3.58B
18.3
0.68
Is GPK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Graphic Packaging (GPK) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.60 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- RSI at 71 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 33%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 71 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 54.5 to 59.6.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 67% to 40%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 48->85 (+37).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 58).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
71.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.101
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$9.88
Resistance
$16.11
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$11.60
Above
EMA 21
$11.25
Above
EMA 50
$10.92
Above
EMA 200
$13.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
61
Profitability
29
Financial Health
42
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.3×
P/B Ratio
1.11×
PEG Ratio
-0.29
Dividend Yield
3.64%
52W High
$23.47
52W Low
$8.79
Quality & Growth
ROE
1330.9%
ROA
377.1%
Gross Margin
1545.7%
Operating Margin
688.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.3%; Return on assets of 3.8%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 15.5%; Current ratio of 1.38 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.64); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-69.0% -> +55.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -66.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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