HD · NYSE · STOCK
Home Depot (HD) Stock Analysis
$335.71
52W $289.10 – $426.75
50/100
$334.64B
23.4
0.96
Is HD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Home Depot (The) (HD) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.86 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 113.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -4.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 113.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.9 to 49.9.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.471
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$331.46
Resistance
$353.55
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$339.98
Below
EMA 21
$340.98
Below
EMA 50
$338.47
Below
EMA 200
$346.36
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
69
Profitability
69
Financial Health
12
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.4×
P/B Ratio
20.08×
PEG Ratio
-8.04
Dividend Yield
2.76%
52W High
$426.75
52W Low
$289.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
11048.1%
ROA
1347.0%
Gross Margin
3320.6%
Operating Margin
1242.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 20.1x; PEG ratio of -8.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 110.5%; Return on assets of 13.5%; Net margin of 8.4%; Gross margin of 33.2%; Current ratio of 1.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.48; Free cash flow per share is positive (15.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.9%; EPS growth accelerating (+26.1% -> +43.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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