HD · NYSE · STOCK
Home Depot (HD) Stock Analysis
$290.75
52W $277.15 – $397.63
52/100
$289.90B
20.3
1.00
Is HD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Home Depot (The) (HD) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.74 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.26 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 102.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 92 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -2.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 102.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -2.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 92 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 52.3.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.463
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$289.22
Resistance
$353.55
Bollinger %B
0.41
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$289.31
Above
EMA 21
$295.64
Below
EMA 50
$309.58
Below
EMA 200
$334.13
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
60
Growth
69
Profitability
69
Financial Health
12
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.3×
P/B Ratio
17.39×
PEG Ratio
-6.96
Dividend Yield
3.20%
52W High
$397.63
52W Low
$277.15
Quality & Growth
ROE
11048.1%
ROA
1347.0%
Gross Margin
3320.6%
Operating Margin
1242.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.77
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.4x; PEG ratio of -7.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 110.5%; Return on assets of 13.5%; Net margin of 8.4%; Gross margin of 33.2%; Current ratio of 1.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.77; Free cash flow per share is positive (15.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.9%; EPS growth accelerating (+26.1% -> +43.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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