HGV · NASDAQ · STOCK
Hilton Grand Vacations
$45.62
52W $36.79 – $55.40
55/100
$3.59B
21.2
1.51
Is HGV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.73 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.27 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 20 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 20 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.2 to 55.3.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 67% to 40%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 53->35 (-18).
- Risk Analyst: score 45->52 (+8); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 50).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.363
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$44.65
Resistance
$46.24
Bollinger %B
0.15
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$47.09
Below
EMA 21
$48.40
Below
EMA 50
$49.04
Below
EMA 200
$46.61
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
32
Profitability
39
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.2×
P/B Ratio
3.38×
PEG Ratio
1.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$55.40
52W Low
$36.79
Quality & Growth
ROE
628.4%
ROA
70.2%
Gross Margin
6072.3%
Operating Margin
1166.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.12
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.4x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.3%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of 3.4%; Gross margin of 60.7%; Current ratio of 2.24 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.12; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.18); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 10.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+80.0% -> -10.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 256.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full HGV Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →