HGV · NYSE · STOCK
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Stock Analysis
$34.55
52W $33.98 – $55.40
52/100
$2.71B
16.1
1.61
Is HGV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.84 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.16 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 205.5% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 5.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 15 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− Debt-to-equity of 5.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 205.5% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.6 to 52.2.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.237
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$34.37
Resistance
$42.56
Bollinger %B
0.28
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$34.86
Below
EMA 21
$36.28
Below
EMA 50
$39.79
Below
EMA 200
$44.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
32
Profitability
39
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.1×
P/B Ratio
2.55×
PEG Ratio
0.83
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$55.40
52W Low
$33.98
Quality & Growth
ROE
628.4%
ROA
70.2%
Gross Margin
6072.3%
Operating Margin
1166.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.12
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.3%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of 3.4%; Gross margin of 60.7%; Current ratio of 2.24 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.12; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.18); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 10.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+80.0% -> -10.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 256.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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