HMC · NYSE · STOCK
Honda Motor (HMC) Stock Analysis
$33.96
52W $23.25 – $33.45
58/100
$43.25B
-45.7
0.31
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is HMC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.75 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.25 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -1.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.5x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -1.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 63.2 to 58.2.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: score 59->51 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.122
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$31.05
Resistance
$34.88
Bollinger %B
1.01
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.65
Above
EMA 21
$32.34
Above
EMA 50
$31.62
Above
EMA 200
$29.60
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
85
Profitability
0
Financial Health
54
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-45.7×
P/B Ratio
0.56×
PEG Ratio
0.20
Dividend Yield
3.94%
52W High
$33.45
52W Low
$23.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
-357.2%
ROA
-126.0%
Gross Margin
1723.3%
Operating Margin
-56.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.14
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -45.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.6x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -3.6%; Return on assets of -1.3%; Net margin of -0.8%; Gross margin of 17.2%; Current ratio of 1.29 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.14; Free cash flow per share is positive (121.17); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 112.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-664.3% -> +152.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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