IP · NYSE · STOCK
International Paper (IP) Stock Analysis
$34.05
52W $29.26 – $50.25
49/100
$18.05B
-5.2
0.89
Is IP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates International Paper (IP) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.41 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.59 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -18.0% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.6% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -22.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -18.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -22.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -18.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.0 to 48.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.223
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$33.57
Resistance
$38.05
Bollinger %B
0.63
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.57
Above
EMA 21
$33.38
Above
EMA 50
$35.18
Below
EMA 200
$38.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
41
Profitability
5
Financial Health
58
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-5.2×
P/B Ratio
1.25×
PEG Ratio
-0.00
Dividend Yield
5.43%
52W High
$50.25
52W Low
$29.26
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2371.3%
ROA
-926.1%
Gross Margin
2774.9%
Operating Margin
-1145.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.67
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -5.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of -0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -23.7%; Return on assets of -9.3%; Net margin of -14.2%; Gross margin of 27.7%; Current ratio of 1.10 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.67; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.93); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 766.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+287.5% -> -73.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -80.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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