KDP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Stock Analysis
$31.77
52W $24.88 – $33.82
57/100
$43.21B
31.9
0.41
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is KDP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.22 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 27.5% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 27.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -7.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.64 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 30.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 27.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -7.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.64 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.5 to 57.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.035
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$28.66
Resistance
$33.16
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$31.12
Above
EMA 21
$31.21
Above
EMA 50
$31.21
Above
EMA 200
$30.26
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
76
Growth
72
Profitability
47
Financial Health
28
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.9×
P/B Ratio
1.73×
PEG Ratio
-2.75
Dividend Yield
2.90%
52W High
$33.82
52W Low
$24.88
Quality & Growth
ROE
814.8%
ROA
374.9%
Gross Margin
4939.3%
Operating Margin
1681.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of -2.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.1%; Return on assets of 3.7%; Net margin of 7.1%; Gross margin of 49.4%; Current ratio of 0.48 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.37; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.0%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-35.0% -> +46.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 16.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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