KMX · NYSE · STOCK
CarMax (KMX) Stock Analysis
$51.84
52W $30.26 – $65.28
49/100
$7.21B
23.9
1.23
Is KMX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates CarMax, Inc. (KMX) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.86 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.14 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.06) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 36 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only 4.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.06 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -40.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only 4.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -40.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.06) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 36 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.8 to 49.1.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 46->51 (+5).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
21.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.580
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$39.35
Resistance
$49.88
Bollinger %B
-0.01
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$52.58
Below
EMA 21
$54.91
Below
EMA 50
$56.30
Below
EMA 200
$52.54
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
75
Profitability
9
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.9×
P/B Ratio
1.14×
PEG Ratio
-0.64
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$65.28
52W Low
$30.26
Quality & Growth
ROE
419.9%
ROA
93.8%
Gross Margin
1006.1%
Operating Margin
-48.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.83
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.2%; Return on assets of 0.9%; Net margin of 1.1%; Gross margin of 10.1%; Current ratio of 2.33 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.83; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.08); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 56.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+285.3% -> -11.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 81.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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