MAT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Mattel (MAT) Stock Analysis
$17.22
52W $12.40 – $22.48
55/100
$4.95B
12.8
0.70
Is MAT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mattel (MAT) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 11.4 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 19.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -12.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 83 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 45.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -12.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 83 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 45.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.6 to 54.6.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
83.2
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.287
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$16.99
Resistance
$18.43
Bollinger %B
0.86
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$16.38
Above
EMA 21
$15.46
Above
EMA 50
$14.85
Above
EMA 200
$15.55
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
32
Profitability
64
Financial Health
74
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.8×
P/B Ratio
2.50×
PEG Ratio
-0.99
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$22.48
52W Low
$12.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
1780.5%
ROA
598.8%
Gross Margin
4741.0%
Operating Margin
849.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 17.8%; Return on assets of 6.0%; Net margin of 7.8%; Gross margin of 47.4%; Current ratio of 1.90 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.37; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.17); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 75.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-151.3% -> +105.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -94.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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