MTDR · NYSE · STOCK
Matador Resources (MTDR) Stock Analysis
$59.16
52W $37.14 – $66.84
57/100
$7.42B
10.2
0.77
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MTDR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Matador Resources (MTDR) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.76 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.79 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -3.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -14.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.79 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -3.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.79 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.8 to 56.8.
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.2
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.319
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$55.35
Resistance
$59.79
Bollinger %B
0.82
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$57.97
Above
EMA 21
$56.02
Above
EMA 50
$54.33
Above
EMA 200
$52.50
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
82
Profitability
81
Financial Health
49
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.2×
P/B Ratio
1.25×
PEG Ratio
-0.69
Dividend Yield
2.51%
52W High
$66.84
52W Low
$37.14
Quality & Growth
ROE
1341.8%
ROA
639.4%
Gross Margin
10267.3%
Operating Margin
3630.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.56
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.4%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 18.6%; Gross margin of 102.7%; Current ratio of 0.65 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.56; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.04); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+75.9% -> +70.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 70.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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