MTDR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Matador Resources
$49.04
52W $37.14 – $66.84
55/100
$6.09B
8.4
0.74
Is MTDR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Matador Resources (MTDR) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.06 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 12.6 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.79 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 28 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -47.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.79 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 28 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.4 to 55.1.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 54->42 (-12); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.122
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$48.45
Resistance
$51.22
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$48.90
Above
EMA 21
$49.92
Below
EMA 50
$51.66
Below
EMA 200
$51.69
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
82
Profitability
81
Financial Health
49
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.4×
P/B Ratio
1.03×
PEG Ratio
-0.57
Dividend Yield
2.93%
52W High
$66.84
52W Low
$37.14
Quality & Growth
ROE
1341.8%
ROA
639.4%
Gross Margin
10267.3%
Operating Margin
3630.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.56
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 8.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.4%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 18.6%; Gross margin of 102.7%; Current ratio of 0.65 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.56; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.04); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+75.9% -> +70.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 70.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full MTDR Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →