MTN · NYSE · STOCK
Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Analysis
$146.00
52W $118.51 – $163.34
47/100
$5.20B
35.4
0.77
Is MTN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vail Resorts (MTN) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -4.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 47.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.6% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 22.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 13.25 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -4.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -43.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 96%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 47.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
22
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -4.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 13.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.3 to 47.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.152
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$139.68
Resistance
$158.94
Bollinger %B
0.95
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$143.13
Above
EMA 21
$141.45
Above
EMA 50
$141.52
Above
EMA 200
$141.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
40
Growth
21
Profitability
52
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
35.4×
P/B Ratio
21.69×
PEG Ratio
-0.80
Dividend Yield
6.08%
52W High
$163.34
52W Low
$118.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
6133.8%
ROA
267.0%
Gross Margin
4175.3%
Operating Margin
1481.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
14.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 21.7x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 61.3%; Return on assets of 2.7%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 41.8%; Current ratio of 0.80 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 14.23; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.73); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.3%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+50.1% -> -160.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -5.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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