MUSA · NYSE · STOCK
Murphy USA (MUSA) Stock Analysis
$529.48
52W $349.83 – $636.05
58/100
$9.77B
16.0
0.25
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MUSA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Murphy USA (MUSA) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.41 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 36.0% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 94.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 36.0% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 12.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.50 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.50) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.80 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 94.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 12.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 36.0% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.50) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 63.2 to 58.4.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 79->63 (-16); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 45->32 (-12).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.949
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$503.44
Resistance
$550.99
Bollinger %B
0.95
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$516.83
Above
EMA 21
$518.55
Above
EMA 50
$531.51
Below
EMA 200
$513.08
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
94
Profitability
53
Financial Health
5
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.0×
P/B Ratio
12.46×
PEG Ratio
0.45
Dividend Yield
0.48%
52W High
$636.05
52W Low
$349.83
Quality & Growth
ROE
7547.7%
ROA
995.8%
Gross Margin
726.4%
Operating Margin
438.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.50
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.5x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 75.5%; Return on assets of 10.0%; Net margin of 2.9%; Gross margin of 7.3%; Current ratio of 0.92 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (29.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.6%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-3.3% -> +54.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 53.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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