NVR · NYSE · STOCK
NVR (NVR) Stock Analysis
$5,897.06
52W $5501.01 – $8200.00
60/100
$15.92B
14.5
0.90
Is NVR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates NVR, Inc. (NVR) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.19 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.81 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 31.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -18.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.7 to 59.8.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
31.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-26.730
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$5514.98
Resistance
$6913.90
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$6,027.78
Below
EMA 21
$6,122.55
Below
EMA 50
$6,223.59
Below
EMA 200
$6,594.64
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
39
Profitability
67
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.5×
P/B Ratio
4.76×
PEG Ratio
-0.75
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$8200.00
52W Low
$5501.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
3466.7%
ROA
2287.6%
Gross Margin
2223.5%
Operating Margin
1490.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.8x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.7%; Return on assets of 22.9%; Net margin of 12.1%; Gross margin of 22.2%; Current ratio of 3.38 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (382.04); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 7.6%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-44.2% -> +23.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -22.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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