ORLY · NASDAQ · STOCK
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Analysis
$87.88
52W $82.59 – $108.72
65/100
$72.41B
27.6
0.52
Is ORLY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 4 analysts with 75% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.31 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.69 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
75%
Analysts
4
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 11%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened significantly from 49.9 to 64.7.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 50% to 75%.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 48->85 (+37).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bearish at 32).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 45).
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.458
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$86.77
Resistance
$93.51
Bollinger %B
0.14
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$88.43
Below
EMA 21
$89.24
Below
EMA 50
$89.46
Below
EMA 200
$91.67
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
65
Profitability
63
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.6×
P/B Ratio
-39.28×
PEG Ratio
2.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$108.72
52W Low
$82.59
Quality & Growth
ROE
-33250.8%
ROA
1534.8%
Gross Margin
5163.6%
Operating Margin
1955.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -39.3x; PEG ratio of 2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -332.5%; Return on assets of 15.3%; Net margin of 14.3%; Gross margin of 51.6%; Current ratio of 0.75 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.22; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.61); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.4% -> +19.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 10.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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