POST · NYSE · STOCK
Post Holdings (POST) Stock Analysis
$74.84
52W $71.45 – $117.28
53/100
$3.39B
12.5
0.32
Is POST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Post Holdings (POST) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.63 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.37 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -8.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -8.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.4 to 53.4.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.300
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$74.26
Resistance
$82.98
Bollinger %B
0.49
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$73.86
Above
EMA 21
$75.42
Below
EMA 50
$79.34
Below
EMA 200
$90.85
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
65
Profitability
26
Financial Health
44
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.5×
P/B Ratio
1.10×
PEG Ratio
-1.91
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$117.28
52W Low
$71.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
894.5%
ROA
248.1%
Gross Margin
2689.0%
Operating Margin
1014.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.9%; Return on assets of 2.5%; Net margin of 3.5%; Gross margin of 26.9%; Current ratio of 1.85 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.48; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.26); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.2%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (-8.9% -> -8.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -12.3%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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