PTON · NASDAQ · STOCK
Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock Analysis
$5.13
52W $3.65 – $8.19
45/100
$2.14B
35.8
2.55
Is PTON Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +15.42 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -4.58 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -1.8% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -418.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 100%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
34
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -1.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 44.6 to 44.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.040
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$4.91
Resistance
$6.54
Bollinger %B
1.07
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$4.96
Above
EMA 21
$5.00
Above
EMA 50
$5.21
Below
EMA 200
$5.61
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
60
Profitability
31
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
35.8×
P/B Ratio
-15.97×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$8.19
52W Low
$3.65
Quality & Growth
ROE
-4524.0%
ROA
307.4%
Gross Margin
5260.6%
Operating Margin
761.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-12.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -16.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -45.2%; Return on assets of 3.1%; Net margin of 2.6%; Gross margin of 52.6%; Current ratio of 2.84 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -12.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.91); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth decelerating (+166.7% -> +116.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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